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Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is ready.

That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."

New Title Intends to Provoke Discussion

The duo have studied the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everybody, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.

"We do not want a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."

Governmental Mandate

Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is approaching, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the possibility, making it uncertain whether or when there will be a referendum.

Insufficient Substantive Discussion

Partisan language supporting and opposing unification has masked the lack of informed dialogue, noted the journalist.

"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or activists are willing to participate with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the book, no writer endorses unification or the current situation. Both authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling economic and social data, past examples and structural examples.

Debates cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be valid points on each side."

Parallel Votes

A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they prefer unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a new flag to reflect unionists' British culture.

"The Irish government does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.

Likelihood of Referendum

McBride considers a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a poor or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed here and the other side will eventually lose but each side has has valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."

Appeal for Broader Discussion

Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish issue."